Located in a highly sensitive subtropical climate area and a densely populated area, Lake Kinneret is poised to undergo both natural and human-induced transformations in the coming decades. The lake is thermally stratified throughout most of the year and mixes thoroughly each winter when the epilimnion (upper layer) water temperature reaches equilibrium with the hypolimnion (bottom layer) water temperature by surface cooling and turbulence. Both the stratified and the fully mixed periods has a significant role in the Kinneret’s ecological system.
Observation shows that air above the Lake is warming in a rate of 0.4oC/decade, while the epilimnion and hypolimnion are warming in a rate of 0.3oC/decade and 0.1oC/decade, respectively, for the last 50 years. Therefore, stratification strength and duration is anticipated to change and impact the lake’s ecosystem.
Additionally, the sequence of drought periods and the expected future rise in water demands from Lake Kinneret formed the basis for the government's decision to channel desalinated water, via the natural course of the Tzalmon Stream, to the lake to ensure its operational functionality at high levels.
Using a 3D hydrodynamic model forced by short and long-term forecasts the above scenarios are examined and analyzed. A simulation forced by regional atmospheric RCP4.5 climate change scenario spanning from 2010-2070 show continuous warming followed by abrupt cooling of the lake water around the year 2065. This result, presumably due to enhanced latent heat loss, suggest a restrain the dramatic anticipated change in the lake stratification.
